New collective housing reservations are around 15,000 to 16,000 per quarter, which is half of what it was before 2022. At the same time, rents are increasing by about 2.5% year-on-year, and the rental supply remains below its pre-Covid level. This dissociation between a new market in deep crisis and an old market that absorbs nearly all rental demand is redefining the choices for investing in new or old real estate in France.
Cycle gap between new and old: what the volumes reveal
The old market recorded a rebound in transactions after the low of 2024, with an annual volume close to 955,000 sales. This figure reflects a normalization, not a strong recovery: the market is holding but plateauing, according to notary data from the first quarter of 2026.
The new market, on the other hand, is in free fall. Fewer than 40,000 sales were recorded in the first half of 2026. Developers are facing high construction costs, long administrative delays, and a declining investor demand since the end of the Pinel scheme.
We observe a simple operational fact: the old market is now the main entry point to the rental market. The new market retains advantages (guarantees, energy performance, reduced notary fees), but its average price and product scarcity limit its accessibility for most investor profiles. To identify available programs and compare the two segments, it remains useful to consult the Striana website, which lists offers by location and type.
Rental yield: renovated old vs. newly delivered turnkey
The gross yield of a well-located old property often exceeds that of new, mainly because the purchase price per square meter remains significantly lower. In medium-sized cities, this price gap largely offsets the costs of bringing energy standards up to date.
The new market shows slightly higher rents due to compliance with RE 2020 and attractiveness for tenants sensitive to charges. On the other hand, the acquisition price absorbs a significant portion of the yield.
Three parameters concretely separate the two segments in terms of profitability:
- The purchase price per square meter: the old market remains cheaper in most local markets, which mechanically improves the rent/price ratio.
- The amount of renovation work in the old market: a heavy energy renovation (insulation, heating system change) can represent a significant budget but generates tax-deductible deficits on overall income.
- Notary fees: about 2 to 3% in the new market compared to 7 to 8% in the old market, a differential that weighs on net yield in the first year.
We recommend reasoning in net yield after tax rather than gross yield. An old property with deductible work can generate positive cash flow more quickly than a newly purchased property at a high price, even with a lower nominal rent.
Tax measures 2026: Jeanbrun, LLI, and property deficit
The end of the Pinel scheme has reshuffled the cards. The Jeanbrun scheme, which came into effect to revive private rental investment in new properties, is experiencing a slow start, far from the initial target.
The Intermediate Rental Housing (LLI) targets tight areas with capped rents below the free market. This mechanism interests institutional investors and some individuals through VEFA arrangements, but its dissemination remains limited by the low volume of eligible programs.
In the old market, the property deficit remains the most direct tax lever. Renovation work (roofing, insulation, plumbing) is deductible from overall income within the limits set by law. For a highly taxed taxpayer, this mechanism reduces taxation as early as the year of the work, without a global cap on tax niches.
The LMNP status (non-professional furnished rental) retains its accounting depreciation regime, which allows for the fiscal neutralization of a large portion of rental income for several years. This status works for both new and old properties, provided the revenue thresholds and reporting obligations under the real regime are respected.
Asset allocation and location: where to concentrate efforts
The rise in credit rates, which is slightly increasing again in 2026 after the relaxation of 2025, complicates highly leveraged arrangements. The market is normalizing without offering the exceptional financing conditions of three years ago.
In major metropolitan areas, old property prices are stabilizing after a moderate correction. In Île-de-France, the recovery remains fragile in the second quarter of 2026. Well-connected medium-sized cities (TGV lines, diversified employment basins) offer higher rental yields and contained vacancy rates.
The new market, when accessible, is justified for a long-term asset building objective with minimal management: no work for ten years, ten-year guarantee, immediate energy compliance. For a short- or medium-term yield objective, renovated old properties in high rental demand areas generate a better return on investment.
The pressure on housing expenses maintains a structural rental demand, particularly in tight areas where the supply of new housing does not meet the needs. Investing in old properties in tight areas remains the most balanced risk-return pair in 2026. The new market retains its place in a diversified asset strategy, provided one accepts a lower initial yield and a long holding horizon.
